ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION VULNERABILITY IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN CENTRAL TANZANIA (pp. 63-72)
ABSTRACT
This study envisages assessing the dynamics and vulnerability of agricultural production to climate variability so as to increase resilience and creating opportunities for increasing agricultural production and environmental sustainability. The results indicated that more frequent and severe extreme climatic events especially, drought is the challenge of agricultural production and on ensuring food security in the area. Changes in temperature and rainfall (timing and quantity) potentially affect agriculture production. It was revealed that the yield potential and yields from rainfed agriculture have been decreased and local food supplies are negatively affected due to the increased temperature and unpredictability of rainfall. About 80% of farmers are not sure on harvesting their crops as evidenced by the loss of harvest for three consecutive years due to unpredictable rainfall and an increase in temperature. It was further indicated that 90% of losses on crop produce were due to impacts associated with the unpredictability of rainfall and increases in pests and diseases. Addressing adverse effects of climate variability is among the critical challenges facing the rural communities because of their reliance on rain-fed subsistence agriculture which is one of the climate-sensitive livelihood activities. Such situation had posed a challenge in agricultural production, livelihoods and resources management. In addressing such challenges agricultural production was recommended to be improved through growing drought and pest/disease resistance crops, early maturing crops, adjustment of planting time, development of irrigation infrastructure where ever possible, subsidization of agricultural inputs and implements of rural social services as coping and adaptation strategies.